Tag Archives: #PatrickMahomes

FANTASY FOOTBALL REVIEW – WEEK 2 WAIVERS AND PLAYER OUTLOOK


We’re through two weeks in the NFL season and what a ride!!!  The world seems topsy-turvy with the Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Tampa Bay Bucs at 2-0.  Meanwhile the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans are winless, and we’ve already seen two games end in a tie.  But how crazy has the fantasy season been???

  • QB – The top 3 fantasy scoring QBs are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Patrick Mahomes, and Kirk Cousins
  • RB – Matt Breida leads the NFL in rushing yards
  • WR – DeSean Jackson leads the NFL in receiving yards
  • TE – The top 3 fantasy scoring TEs are Jared Cook, Jesse James, and Will Dissly

Remember, we’re only 2 weeks into the season.  Starting this week, you will see fantasy owners panic and drop good players because they had 2 bad games.  Don’t overreact and try to cash in when other owners do.  After 4 weeks of poor play, then you can assess if a player needs to be cut.

So onto the “Fantasy Smoke & Fire” for week 2, where we read beyond the stat lines to determine player values moving forward.

Here are the four categories of players we look at each week:

  • On Fire – These are players that are exceeding expectations (or ADP), and we expect it to continue. Think waiver wire adds!
  • Smoke (and mirrors) – These are players that have performed well recently, but we do not expect it to continue. Don’t buy into the hype; pass on the waiver wire pickup.  Possibly look to trade them away with the value is high.
  • False Alarm – These are players that are underperforming recently, but we expect them to turn around. Don’t cut bait too early.  Possibly look to acquire them in a trade while the value is low.
  • On Ice – These are players that have not performed well, and we expect a poor season to continue. They should stay on the bench (or be cut depending on the player/circumstances).

On Fire – Obviously all of these players aren’t on waivers, but they have impressed and I expect it to continue.

Fire
Pos Player Comment
QB Patrick Mahomes 23/28 326-6-0.  I doubted Mahomes entering the year.  He’s the real deal and his decision making is quick/sharp. Never been a question of his cannon arm.
QB Kirk Cousins 35/48 425-4-1.  Same old slinging Cousins, just on a new team.
RB Chris Thompson 4-1 (13-92 on 14 targets).  He doesn’t always get the most touches, but I’m finally starting to buy into him.
RB Tevin Coleman 16-107 (4-18 on 4 targets).  Anytime Freeman (or Coleman) is out, the other is a great fantasy play.
RB Phillip Lindsay 14-107 (1-4 on 1 target).  Is Lindsay really the lead back of the Broncos?  We would all like to see them stick with one.
WR Will Fuller 8-113-1 on 9 targets.  Outside of Fuller and Hopkins, nobody else had more than 3 targets.  Fuller is 30-40% of the passing game.
WR Sammy Watkins 6-100 on 7 targets (1-31 rushing).  Looking like a resurgence as long as Mahomes keeps up his game.
WR Juju Smith-Schuster 13-121-1 on 19 targets.  He got more looks than AB.  It’ll continue with so much defensive attention payed to Brown.
WR Nelson Agholor 8-88-1 on 12 targets.  Outside of Ertz, he’s the most heavily involved in the passing game.  Will it continue with Wentz back next week?
WR Quincy Enunwa 7-92 on 11 targets.  Looks like Darnold’s go to guy.
WR Kenny Golladay 6-89-1 on 9 targets.  Just keeps pushing for looks from Stafford.  It will continue, but he’s still the #3 receiver til Marvin Jones falters.
WR Allen Robinson 10-83 on 14 targets.  Trubisky’s certainly looking his way.  I doubted his ADP this year but he may come through.
TE Will Dissly 3-42-1 on 5 targets.  He’s building trust from Wilson and should see looks with Baldwin out.

 

Smoke – They had a good start to the season, but I’m not sold on it continuing.

Smoke
Pos Player Comment
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 27/33 402-4-1.  Fitz-Magic is rolling.  He’s on a hot streak and may keep the QB job from Winston.  But his career proves that he’s certainly not this good.
QB Andy Dalton 24/42 265-4-0.  Week 2 may be the only 4 TD game he has all year.  He’s no more that a low-end QB2 matchup play.
QB Blake Bortles 29/45 377-4-1 (6-35).  Bortles did everything he needed to do to beat the Patriots.  He’s not a fantasy QB that you want to lean on all season.
RB Matt Breida 11-138-1 (3-21 on 4 targets).  He had one great long run; the rest was mediocre.
WR DeSean Jackson 4-129-1 on 4 targets.  Jackson can’t keep this up all season.  He’ll always catch a few long ones, but the week to week consistency isn’t there.
WR Brandon Cooks 7-159 on 9 targets.  Goff spreads the ball around and I don’t expect a top 5 passing attack.  I don’t expect big games consistently.
WR Keelan Cole 7-116-1 on 8 targets.  Everyone will talk about the spectacular 1 handed catch.  That doesn’t get you extra fantasy points; and neither will Bortles.
TE Jesse James 5-138-1 on 5 targets.  Had some big plays, but the Steelers offense uses him as a safety valve more than a playmaker.

 

False Alarm – Don’t overreact to these players just because of a slow start; they’ll be fine moving forward.  If they get cut in your league, be quick to scoop them up.

False Alarm
Pos Player Comment
QB Aaron Rodgers 30/42 281-1-0.  The knee injury will only slightly impact his fantasy production over the next month.  Expect 90% of typical Rodgers.
RB Alex Collins 9-35 (3-55 on 4 targets).  Collins is still the man, but Bal was behind 21-0 early.
RB Adrian Peterson 11-20 (3-30 on 3 targets).  Surprising stat line against a bottom tier Ind def.  I expect a rebound.
RB Kareem Hunt 18-75 (1-5-1 on 1 target).  Don’t panic, but pounce if there’s a worried owner out there.  Also see Dalvin Cook…
RB Kenyan Drake 11-53-1 (4-17 on 4 targets).  I still believe in Drake, but need to see a big game by week 4.
RB Dalvin Cook 10-38 (3-52 on 5 targets).  Don’t panic, but pounce if there’s a worried owner out there. Also see Kareem Hunt…
RB Jordan Howard 14-35 (3-33 on 4 targets).  Still the workhorse; TDs will come.
WR SF Wide Receivers No one targeted more than 4 times.  Goodwin was out week 2.  Someone will step up, but who?
WR Odell Beckham Jr. 4-51 on 9 targets.  Still one of the best in the league.
TE Rob Gronkowski 2-15 on 4 targets.  Just because Jacksonville shut him down, it doesn’t mean other teams can replicate.

 

On Ice – These guys are not performing and I don’t expect it to turnaround any time soon (compared to expectations).

On Ice
Pos Player Comment
QB Andrew Luck 21/31 179-2-2.  I didn’t trust him as a top 5 QB before his shoulder injury in 2016; he’ll be up and down all year.
QB Sam Bradford 17/27 90-0-1.  How pitiful!!!  Is it time for Josh Rosen?
QB Case Keenum 19/35 222-0-1 (3-16-1).  Can any QB be successful in Denver these days?  Not looking good for Keenum
QB Russell Wilson 15/27 139-1-1.  Sacked 6 times in each of the first 2 games.  It’s gonna be tough sledding this year.
RB Derrick Henry 18-56.  Until teams respect the passing game, Henry won’t be a fantasy starter.
RB Dion Lewis 14-42 (1-1 on 1 target).  I like his chances at a rebound more than Henry because of his receiving ability, but the passing game stinks!!!
RB LeSean McCoy 9-39 (4-29 on 4 targets).  Terrible team, cracked ribs, age, nuff said…
RB Jamaal Williams 16-59 (3-12 on 4 targets).  I expected Williams to run with the RB job the first 2 wks.  Didn’t happen and here comes electric Aaron Jones back from suspension.
RB David Johnson 13-48 (1-3 on 2 targets).  That offense is beyond terrible.  DJ won’t improve until Bradford is benched (or turns around his career which is unlikely).
RB Royce Freeman 8-28-1 (1 target).  Overdrafted in many fantasy leagues (I didn’t buy in).  Lindsay looks like the preferred option and was already the 3rd down back.
RB Chris Carson 6-24 (1 target).  The Seattle backfield has been bad for years.  Looks like they’re ready to turn the page and see what their rookie RB has.
WR Robby Anderson 3-27 on 5 targets.  Looks like Enunwa is his go to option.
TE David Njoku 4-20 on 7 targets.  He’s an athletic freak, but hasn’t put it all together yet.

Hit me up on Twitter with any questions/comments @PghJohn36

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