We’re through two weeks in the NFL season and what a ride!!! The world seems topsy-turvy with the Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Tampa Bay Bucs at 2-0. Meanwhile the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans are winless, and we’ve already seen two games end in a tie. But how crazy has the fantasy season been???
- QB – The top 3 fantasy scoring QBs are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Patrick Mahomes, and Kirk Cousins
- RB – Matt Breida leads the NFL in rushing yards
- WR – DeSean Jackson leads the NFL in receiving yards
- TE – The top 3 fantasy scoring TEs are Jared Cook, Jesse James, and Will Dissly
Remember, we’re only 2 weeks into the season. Starting this week, you will see fantasy owners panic and drop good players because they had 2 bad games. Don’t overreact and try to cash in when other owners do. After 4 weeks of poor play, then you can assess if a player needs to be cut.
So onto the “Fantasy Smoke & Fire” for week 2, where we read beyond the stat lines to determine player values moving forward.
Here are the four categories of players we look at each week:
- On Fire – These are players that are exceeding expectations (or ADP), and we expect it to continue. Think waiver wire adds!
- Smoke (and mirrors) – These are players that have performed well recently, but we do not expect it to continue. Don’t buy into the hype; pass on the waiver wire pickup. Possibly look to trade them away with the value is high.
- False Alarm – These are players that are underperforming recently, but we expect them to turn around. Don’t cut bait too early. Possibly look to acquire them in a trade while the value is low.
- On Ice – These are players that have not performed well, and we expect a poor season to continue. They should stay on the bench (or be cut depending on the player/circumstances).
On Fire – Obviously all of these players aren’t on waivers, but they have impressed and I expect it to continue.
| Fire | ||
| Pos | Player | Comment |
| QB | Patrick Mahomes | 23/28 326-6-0. I doubted Mahomes entering the year. He’s the real deal and his decision making is quick/sharp. Never been a question of his cannon arm. |
| QB | Kirk Cousins | 35/48 425-4-1. Same old slinging Cousins, just on a new team. |
| RB | Chris Thompson | 4-1 (13-92 on 14 targets). He doesn’t always get the most touches, but I’m finally starting to buy into him. |
| RB | Tevin Coleman | 16-107 (4-18 on 4 targets). Anytime Freeman (or Coleman) is out, the other is a great fantasy play. |
| RB | Phillip Lindsay | 14-107 (1-4 on 1 target). Is Lindsay really the lead back of the Broncos? We would all like to see them stick with one. |
| WR | Will Fuller | 8-113-1 on 9 targets. Outside of Fuller and Hopkins, nobody else had more than 3 targets. Fuller is 30-40% of the passing game. |
| WR | Sammy Watkins | 6-100 on 7 targets (1-31 rushing). Looking like a resurgence as long as Mahomes keeps up his game. |
| WR | Juju Smith-Schuster | 13-121-1 on 19 targets. He got more looks than AB. It’ll continue with so much defensive attention payed to Brown. |
| WR | Nelson Agholor | 8-88-1 on 12 targets. Outside of Ertz, he’s the most heavily involved in the passing game. Will it continue with Wentz back next week? |
| WR | Quincy Enunwa | 7-92 on 11 targets. Looks like Darnold’s go to guy. |
| WR | Kenny Golladay | 6-89-1 on 9 targets. Just keeps pushing for looks from Stafford. It will continue, but he’s still the #3 receiver til Marvin Jones falters. |
| WR | Allen Robinson | 10-83 on 14 targets. Trubisky’s certainly looking his way. I doubted his ADP this year but he may come through. |
| TE | Will Dissly | 3-42-1 on 5 targets. He’s building trust from Wilson and should see looks with Baldwin out. |
Smoke – They had a good start to the season, but I’m not sold on it continuing.
| Smoke | ||
| Pos | Player | Comment |
| QB | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 27/33 402-4-1. Fitz-Magic is rolling. He’s on a hot streak and may keep the QB job from Winston. But his career proves that he’s certainly not this good. |
| QB | Andy Dalton | 24/42 265-4-0. Week 2 may be the only 4 TD game he has all year. He’s no more that a low-end QB2 matchup play. |
| QB | Blake Bortles | 29/45 377-4-1 (6-35). Bortles did everything he needed to do to beat the Patriots. He’s not a fantasy QB that you want to lean on all season. |
| RB | Matt Breida | 11-138-1 (3-21 on 4 targets). He had one great long run; the rest was mediocre. |
| WR | DeSean Jackson | 4-129-1 on 4 targets. Jackson can’t keep this up all season. He’ll always catch a few long ones, but the week to week consistency isn’t there. |
| WR | Brandon Cooks | 7-159 on 9 targets. Goff spreads the ball around and I don’t expect a top 5 passing attack. I don’t expect big games consistently. |
| WR | Keelan Cole | 7-116-1 on 8 targets. Everyone will talk about the spectacular 1 handed catch. That doesn’t get you extra fantasy points; and neither will Bortles. |
| TE | Jesse James | 5-138-1 on 5 targets. Had some big plays, but the Steelers offense uses him as a safety valve more than a playmaker. |
False Alarm – Don’t overreact to these players just because of a slow start; they’ll be fine moving forward. If they get cut in your league, be quick to scoop them up.
| False Alarm | ||
| Pos | Player | Comment |
| QB | Aaron Rodgers | 30/42 281-1-0. The knee injury will only slightly impact his fantasy production over the next month. Expect 90% of typical Rodgers. |
| RB | Alex Collins | 9-35 (3-55 on 4 targets). Collins is still the man, but Bal was behind 21-0 early. |
| RB | Adrian Peterson | 11-20 (3-30 on 3 targets). Surprising stat line against a bottom tier Ind def. I expect a rebound. |
| RB | Kareem Hunt | 18-75 (1-5-1 on 1 target). Don’t panic, but pounce if there’s a worried owner out there. Also see Dalvin Cook… |
| RB | Kenyan Drake | 11-53-1 (4-17 on 4 targets). I still believe in Drake, but need to see a big game by week 4. |
| RB | Dalvin Cook | 10-38 (3-52 on 5 targets). Don’t panic, but pounce if there’s a worried owner out there. Also see Kareem Hunt… |
| RB | Jordan Howard | 14-35 (3-33 on 4 targets). Still the workhorse; TDs will come. |
| WR | SF Wide Receivers | No one targeted more than 4 times. Goodwin was out week 2. Someone will step up, but who? |
| WR | Odell Beckham Jr. | 4-51 on 9 targets. Still one of the best in the league. |
| TE | Rob Gronkowski | 2-15 on 4 targets. Just because Jacksonville shut him down, it doesn’t mean other teams can replicate. |
On Ice – These guys are not performing and I don’t expect it to turnaround any time soon (compared to expectations).
| On Ice | ||
| Pos | Player | Comment |
| QB | Andrew Luck | 21/31 179-2-2. I didn’t trust him as a top 5 QB before his shoulder injury in 2016; he’ll be up and down all year. |
| QB | Sam Bradford | 17/27 90-0-1. How pitiful!!! Is it time for Josh Rosen? |
| QB | Case Keenum | 19/35 222-0-1 (3-16-1). Can any QB be successful in Denver these days? Not looking good for Keenum |
| QB | Russell Wilson | 15/27 139-1-1. Sacked 6 times in each of the first 2 games. It’s gonna be tough sledding this year. |
| RB | Derrick Henry | 18-56. Until teams respect the passing game, Henry won’t be a fantasy starter. |
| RB | Dion Lewis | 14-42 (1-1 on 1 target). I like his chances at a rebound more than Henry because of his receiving ability, but the passing game stinks!!! |
| RB | LeSean McCoy | 9-39 (4-29 on 4 targets). Terrible team, cracked ribs, age, nuff said… |
| RB | Jamaal Williams | 16-59 (3-12 on 4 targets). I expected Williams to run with the RB job the first 2 wks. Didn’t happen and here comes electric Aaron Jones back from suspension. |
| RB | David Johnson | 13-48 (1-3 on 2 targets). That offense is beyond terrible. DJ won’t improve until Bradford is benched (or turns around his career which is unlikely). |
| RB | Royce Freeman | 8-28-1 (1 target). Overdrafted in many fantasy leagues (I didn’t buy in). Lindsay looks like the preferred option and was already the 3rd down back. |
| RB | Chris Carson | 6-24 (1 target). The Seattle backfield has been bad for years. Looks like they’re ready to turn the page and see what their rookie RB has. |
| WR | Robby Anderson | 3-27 on 5 targets. Looks like Enunwa is his go to option. |
| TE | David Njoku | 4-20 on 7 targets. He’s an athletic freak, but hasn’t put it all together yet. |
Hit me up on Twitter with any questions/comments @PghJohn36
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